We regularly hear people in pain say things like “I can feel the rain coming in my joints” or “my old knee flares up every time the temperature drops.”
It’s one of those long standing beliefs that many people — especially those living with arthritis, age old injuries, or chronic pain — swear by.
But is it just an old wives’ tale, or is there actually some science to back it up?
Let’s break down both the theories and the current evidence.
The link between pain and the weather isn’t new. Hippocrates mentioned it as early as 400 B.C. And even today, surveys show that a large percentage of people with conditions like osteoarthritis, fibromyalgia, or chronic back pain report that their symptoms get worse with specific weather changes.
But is perception the same as proof?
While the exact biological mechanism isn’t fully understood, there are some theories that try to explain it:
1. Barometric Pressure: When the barometric (atmospheric) pressure drops — which often happens just before bad weather — tissues can expand slightly. This may irritate joints, particularly those already inflamed or arthritic.
2. Temperature Changes: Cold temperatures can cause muscles, tendons, and ligaments to stiffen, potentially increasing discomfort and reducing mobility.
3. Humidity and Joint Swelling: High humidity may increase swelling in joints or affect fluid dynamics in tissues, contributing to the sensation of stiffness or pain.
4. Changes in Mood and Activity: Rainy or overcast weather can affect mental health, potentially lowering pain thresholds. This change in weather may also lead to people being less active during bad weather, leading to stiffness and deconditioning.
What Does the Research Say?
Scientific studies on this topic have been mixed — and as with many pain-related topics, the answer isn’t as clear-cut as many would hope.
Let’s look at some key research findings;
1. ‘Cloudy With a Chance of Pain’ was one of the largest studies to explore this issue. Over 9,000 people tracked their symptoms via a smartphone app while local weather data was collected.
- Findings? There was a small but statistically significant link between pain and weather — specifically increased pain with lower pressure, higher humidity, and lower temperatures.
- Limitations? Correlation doesn’t mean causation. Also, self-reporting can introduce bias.
Reference: Dixon WG, et al. (2019). “Weather and Pain in Rheumatic Disease: An Observational Study.” [PubMed PMID: 30683728]
2. A 2014 Systematic Review (Back Pain and Weather) assessed whether weather variables influenced musculoskeletal pain (especially back pain). It included multiple studies and patient groups.
- Findings? No consistent association. Some people were sensitive to weather changes, but on the whole, weather had minimal impact at the population level.
Reference: Ferreira ML, et al. (2014). “The influence of weather on pain and function in individuals with low back pain.” [PubMed PMID: 24768528]
3. Arthritis and Weather: Some studies focusing on osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis have shown weak but noticeable associations — usually involving cold, damp weather worsening symptoms. However, individual variability is huge.
And so what does that all mean?
Essentially, some people may be weather-sensitive … but it’s by no means universal!
And so could it all just be in your head? Actually… Maybe Not.
To be clear: “It’s all in your head” doesn’t mean it’s not real! The brain plays a major role in how we interpret pain, and environmental cues (like weather changes) can absolutely influence perception.
In other words, if your knee aches every time a cold front rolls in — and it consistently does — that experience is valid. The nervous system doesn’t need hard science to make connections; sometimes, lived experience is enough to shape pain responses.
If you do notice a link between pain and the weather, you could consider:
- Staying active — movement helps keep joints lubricated and muscles strong – think ‘motion is lotion’.
- Warming up before going outside in the cold.
- Layering clothing to retain heat.
- Tracking symptoms — apps or journals can help reveal patterns and inform treatment.
- Mindfulness or cognitive strategies — reducing how much the weather controls your outlook on pain.
If there is anything to sum up here, it is that the weather–pain connection isn’t fully proven, but for many people, it’s very real.
There are some plausible explanations, some long-held beliefs and experiences, some supporting evidence … and lots of room for further research.
Whether it’s about tissue sensitivity, the nervous system, or just experience-based expectations, your pain is always real — and we’re here to help you manage it.
If you’ve noticed your symptoms fluctuate with the seasons, it’s always worth mentioning in any assessments you may have.
Stay warm (or cool), stay active, and as always, feel free to contact us if you have questions about your pain or recovery.